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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."

Call for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."